NPL&REO News

New roadmap for doValue: fewer NPLs and greater use of AI

19 March, 2026

There is a tide slowly receding in the world of credit: that of non-performing loans (NPLs). And it risks leaving some vessels stranded. The more forward-thinking credit managers have already begun to reposition themselves.

“Fewer NPLs, more value-added services and investment in technology, especially artificial intelligence,” doValue’s CEO, Manuela Franchi, summarised to Corriere.

Bank balance sheets explain the phenomenon well. In the two-year period 2022–June 2025, the stock of impaired loans in Europe stood at €273 billion, but with divergent dynamics: the increase was driven by Germany with €14.4 billion and France with €11.8 billion, while flows declined in Spain and, above all, in Italy. Here, banking bad debts have fallen from €200 billion in 2015–2016 to €28.3 billion in 2025.

“We manage impaired loans; we do not buy them,” Franchi emphasised, distinguishing doValue’s model from that of other operators more exposed to refinancing costs.

The 2024–2026 industrial plan is progressing as expected: in 2025, profit rose to €25.3 million from €6.7 million in 2024, while gross revenues, at €580 million, increased by 21%. These results were also supported by the €2.7 billion in NPEs managed on behalf of BPER.

The group’s profile is also changing thanks to acquisitions. After Gardant, incorporated in 2024 and focused on UTPs (unlikely to pay), the German company Coeo is now arriving, which will strengthen the group’s international presence. Gardant has already generated €5 million in synergies, expected to rise to €10 million this year and €15 million in 2027.

With Coeo, the group will enter new markets – Germany, Scandinavia, the United Kingdom, Benelux, Austria and Switzerland – adding to Italy, Greece, Spain and Cyprus. The strategy of growth through acquisitions is not new: in the past, doValue acquired Altamira in Spain (2019) and Eurobank FPS in Greece (2020). New deals are possible after 2027, once the current structure has been consolidated.

At the same time, the group has invested heavily in technology to reduce costs and expand its portfolio. It is now increasingly focusing on UTPs and performing loans, as well as services for companies.

Germany will play an important role. Coeo specialises in small-ticket loans linked to digital markets, energy and telecommunications, and has developed its own artificial intelligence company for debt collection. After integration, the share of NPLs in doValue’s core business will fall to 45%, marking a shift away from an overly concentrated model.

Meanwhile, traditional activity continues to grow: the group has secured €8 billion in new assets and, over two years, has exceeded €24 billion, reaching the targets of the industrial plan a year ahead of schedule.

Artificial intelligence will mainly be used to improve recovery forecasts and automate processes, increasing margins towards 40%. The financial structure also remains under control: leverage fell from 2.4 in 2024 to 2.0 in 2025 and, despite the acquisition of Coeo for €350 million, it should stand at 2.2 this year before dropping below the level of 2 in 2027.

“Our traditional business remains central,” Franchi concluded, “but we are opening up new segments with higher growth rates, particularly in small-ticket loans.”

Original Story: Market Screener | Author: Alliance News
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Prolonged Middle East conflict could pressure Greek banks, Moody’s says

19 March, 2026

Ratings agency warns extended disruption could weigh on growth, raise refinancing risks and trigger a new wave of non-performing loans.

Markets may be pricing in a short-lived Middle East conflict, but a prolonged war – a scenario that cannot be ruled out – would put significant pressure on Greek banks’ business plans and financial performance, potentially triggering a new wave of non-performing loans, Moody’s told Kathimerini.

According to the ratings agency, Greek banks are unlikely to face an immediate deterioration in solvency from the direct effects of the conflict. However, secondary risks would rise if the disruption proves prolonged, as lenders would be exposed to weaker economic activity, reduced investor confidence and possible liquidity pressures.

“If the conflict is short-lived, there will be no serious impact on Greek banks,” Nontas Nikolaidis, Vice President and Senior Analyst for Bank Credit Ratings at Moody’s, told Kathimerini.

Fitch has a similar view, estimating that a brief conflict would not alter its assessment of the operating environment for Greek banks, given their limited exposure to the region and their capacity to absorb short-term shocks.

However, the outlook would change significantly in the event of a prolonged war. According to Nikolaidis, “a prolonged conflict in the Middle East is likely to have secondary effects on the Greek economy.”

These effects could stem from several factors, he said. “First, higher energy prices and inflationary pressures resulting from disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Second, a deepening of global risk aversion, which could broaden pressure on credit spreads in high-yield markets. Third, increased refinancing risks for issuers with short-term maturities, particularly in energy-intensive and cyclical sectors already facing high input costs. And fourth, added complications for the path of interest rates and central bank decision-making.”

“These developments are likely to negatively affect Greek banks’ growth plans and financial performance and could potentially lead to a new wave of non-performing exposures,” he added.

Original Story: Ekathimerini | Author: Eleftheria Kourtali
Edition: Prime Yield

Strong 2025 results position Portuguese banks well amid rising uncertainty in 2026

19 March, 2026

Portuguese banks reported solid results in the 2025 fiscal year and enter 2026 with robust capital and risk buffers, despite a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, according to rating agency DBRS Morningstar.

“Portuguese banks delivered resilient 2025 results, supported by strong profitability, improved asset quality, and robust capital buffers, despite margin pressures. As they enter 2026, banks are well positioned to face a more uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop, though risks to growth and credit quality remain,” DBRS noted.

Asset quality strengthened further, with lower non-performing loan ratios and high coverage levels, while capitalisation remained solid despite modest CET1 declines driven by risk-weighted asset inflation and capital distributions.

Profitability in 2025 was underpinned by significant provision releases, strong fee income, and growth in other revenues, which helped offset a general decline in net interest income.

“Portuguese banks start 2026 with solid profitability, strong asset quality, and robust capital reserves, positioning them well to absorb a more uncertain macro and geopolitical environment,” said María Jesús Parra, CFA, Vice President of European Financial Institutions Ratings. “While some margin pressure may persist, we expect banks to remain resilient, supported by solid fundamentals and disciplined risk management.”

Original Story: Jornal Económico | Author: Maria Teixeira Alves
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Brazilian household debt reaches record high in February

19 March, 2026

Brazilian household debt reached a new historic high in February 2026, according to the latest Consumer Indebtedness and Default Survey (Peic) released by the National Confederation of Commerce in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC).

The survey shows that 80.2% of Brazilian families currently hold some form of debt, the highest level recorded since the series began in 2010. The figure represents an increase of 0.7 percentage points compared with January and is 3.8 percentage points higher than in February 2025.

The record level of indebtedness comes alongside a renewed rise in default rates. After three months of decline, the share of households with overdue payments increased to 29.6%, highlighting growing financial pressure on families.

According to José Roberto Tadros, president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac system, the trend reflects the impact of Brazil’s restrictive monetary policy.

“Brazilian household debt has reached a critical and unprecedented level, squeezed by the maintenance of the Selic interest rate at high levels since 2025,” Tadros said. “Although credit is an essential driver of consumption, the cost of borrowing remains extremely high, creating a dangerous cycle in which rising debt is compounded by interest rates that make repayment more difficult.”

Longer delays in payments

The survey also indicates that financial stress among consumers is becoming more persistent. The average payment delay rose to 65.1 months, the highest level since late 2024. Meanwhile, the proportion of consumers with debts overdue for more than 90 days increased to 49.5%, suggesting that payment delays are becoming increasingly prolonged.

CNC chief economist Fabio Bentes said the rise in defaults is particularly concerning.

“The increase in indebtedness is worrying, as we do not usually see levels this high,” he said. “But the growth in default is even more alarming because it reflects the damage caused to family budgets by the long period of monetary tightening and high interest rates.”

The share of households that say they will be unable to repay overdue debts in the coming month reached 12.6%, slightly higher than the 12.3% recorded in the same period last year.

Income gap in debt trends

The rise in overall indebtedness was driven largely by higher-income households, particularly those earning more than five minimum wages, which tend to use credit as a way to maintain consumption without using their own savings.

Among families earning more than ten minimum wages, the proportion with debt rose from 65.5% in 2025 to 69.3% in 2026.

Lower-income households, however, remain the most affected by overdue debts. Among families earning up to three minimum wages, 38.9% reported overdue bills, and 18.6% said they are unable to repay their outstanding debts.

Credit cards remain the main source of debt

Credit cards continue to be the most common form of borrowing, cited by 85% of indebted households.

Other frequently mentioned forms of debt include store instalment plans (16%), personal loans (12.3%), home financing (9.8%), and car financing (8.9%).

Original Story: Portal do Comércio
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Half of Portuguese consumers fall into debt due to rising cost of living

17 March, 2026

A study by Intrum also shows that unexpected expenses, stagnant incomes and greater reliance on credit cards are putting pressure on household budgets, with the percentage of people paying their bills on time falling compared with 2024.

Half of Portuguese consumers cited the rising cost of living as the main reason for falling into debt, according to a study by Intrum, which also highlighted the use of credit cards over the past six months to pay bills or other expenses.

In a statement, the organisation stressed that the “increase in the cost of living continues to be the main factor behind the financial difficulties of Portuguese households”. The study found that 50% of consumers in Portugal “who face difficulties in paying their debts point to rising prices of essential goods, such as food and energy, as the main reason for this situation”.

According to the Intrum study, which operates in the credit management services sector in Europe, “43% of Portuguese people fall into debt due to unexpected expenses, such as family emergencies or medical costs”, while 34% point to the stagnation of their “wages or income, as they have not kept pace with the rising cost of living”.

Even so, 77% of consumers in Portugal say they are “able to pay all their bills on time, a figure slightly above the European average”. However, this result “shows a significant deterioration compared with 2024, when 85% of consumers were able to do so”, signalling “increasing financial pressure on household budgets”.

On the other hand, a regional analysis in the study shows that although the rising cost of living is a cross-cutting factor, “the specific reasons for financial difficulties vary between regions of the country”.

In the Autonomous Regions of Madeira and the Azores, 71% of consumers indicate “the rising cost of living as the main reason for difficulties in paying debts”. In Alentejo, meanwhile, “82% of consumers facing financial difficulties point to unexpected expenses as one of the main reasons for indebtedness, highlighting greater exposure to unforeseen financial events”.

The Lisbon Metropolitan Area is where consumers most frequently complain that “their income has not kept pace with the rising cost of living (56%), leading them into debt”.

The Intrum study, the ECPR — European Consumer Payment Report, also identifies differences between generations regarding the reasons for indebtedness.

“Among Generation X, 74% point to the cost of living as the main reason for difficulties in paying debts, making it the age group most affected by this factor. Half of this generation (50%) also mention the impact of incomes that have not kept pace with rising prices.” Among Millennials, however, 43% cite unexpected expenses.

“Generation Z shows greater vulnerability to unforeseen financial events: 59% point to unexpected costs as the main reason for difficulties in paying debts, reflecting a smaller financial cushion to deal with unexpected expenses,” the statement reads.

When asked about the reasons for not paying bills on time, “40% of Portuguese consumers surveyed say they do not have enough money available at the time the payment is due”.

According to the study, “46% of consumers in Portugal say they have used a credit card in the past six months to pay bills or other expenses”, Intrum also noted, while 19% of consumers said they had borrowed money.

The study was conducted by FT Longitude in August 2025, based on a survey of 20,000 consumers in 20 European countries. In Portugal, the sample consisted of 1,000 consumers.

Original Story: Expresso
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Spanish banks’ NPLs fall by €879 million in December to €33 billion

17 March, 2026

The volume of non-performing loans (NPLs) held by Spanish banks fell by €879 million at the end of 2025, declining to €33.329 billion, according to the historical series on doubtful loans published monthly by the Bank of Spain.

This level of bad loans is the lowest since June 2008 and is also reflected in the NPL ratio, which closed 2025 at 2.71%—its lowest level since September 2008.

On a year-on-year basis, the stock of unpaid loans fell by €6.03 billion between December 2024 and December 2025.

Meanwhile, the total volume of credit granted stood at €1.22 trillion, down €1.695 billion compared with the previous month and €42.262 billion lower than in December 2024.

By type of institution, the NPL ratio for banks, savings banks and credit cooperatives stood at 2.64% in December, five basis points lower than the previous month and 60 basis points below the level recorded in the same period of 2024.

In absolute terms, these institutions reduced their stock of bad loans by €709 million to €30.951 billion. Compared with December 2024, the figure is around €5.649 billion lower.

Specialised consumer credit institutions saw their NPL ratio close 2025 at 4.89%, down from 5.53% in November and 76 basis points lower than a year earlier.

The volume of doubtful credit at these institutions stood at €2.208 billion at the end of December, €151 million less than in November. Compared with the same month of the previous year, the stock of bad loans declined by around €357 million.

Finally, according to data from the Bank of Spain, loan-loss provisions across all credit institutions totalled €26.956 billion. This represents a decline of €331 million compared with November and a year-on-year decrease of €1.953 billion.

Original Story: Forbes |Author: Forbes/ EP
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

BRB Faces Major Challenges in Selling Banco Master’s Distressed Assets

17 March, 2026

The Banco de Brasília (BRB) is encountering significant difficulties in its attempt to sell the distressed assets inherited from Banco Master, which were handed over as compensation for a large-scale fraud of R$12.2 billion involving credit portfolios. Under pressure from Brazil’s Central Bank, BRB is seeking to raise R$21 billion to rebuild its capital base and avoid the possibility of regulatory intervention. However, market operators cited by O Globo argue that the bank’s valuation is unrealistic, describing the assets as heavily overestimated and extremely difficult to recover.

Despite having already secured R$5 billion through the sale of part of its original loan portfolios to restore liquidity, BRB continues to face scepticism regarding the remaining assets in the package. According to financial analysts, the total value of the assets may be closer to R$3 billion — far below the bank’s expectations — which could force the Federal District government to intervene with a capital injection.

The portfolio currently offered to the market includes a range of heterogeneous assets. Among them is the Credcesta payroll-loan programme, for which BRB is asking R$9 billion, and around R$2 billion in credit-rights certificates linked to Tirreno, the company identified as responsible for the original fraud. The package also includes stakes in companies connected to businessman Nelson Tanure, such as a 15% share in Ambipar. Although BRB values this participation at R$1.5 billion, market managers estimate its actual worth at no more than R$50 million, given the company’s ongoing judicial recovery since 2025.

Other minor holdings listed in the asset inventory include positions in the insulin manufacturer Biomm, the SP Surf Club and additional smaller companies. These items, however, have not eased investor concerns, with some market players stating that even deep discounts may not justify the risks associated with what they call the “Master risk”.

Original Story: Revista Oeste | Author: Erich Mafra
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

National Bank of Greece completes the Etalia A transaction

17 March, 2026

The National Bank of Greece (NBG) has announced the completion of the Etalia A transaction, which envolves the disposal of a portfolio of non-performing exposures (NPE) with a total principal amount of c.€0.1 bilion to a purchaser company (Leon Issuer DAC) managed by Bain Capital.

The transaction is capital accretive.

doValue Greece undertook the servicing of the Etalia A portfolio.

DoValue Greece undertook servicing of the Etalia A portfolio.

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc acted as the financial adviser and arranger of the transaction, while Karatzas & Partners Law Firm and Clifford Chance LLP served as the local and international external legal counsel to NBG, respectively.

Original Story: NBG
Edition: Prime Yield