The Bank of Spain is monitoring around €8.2 billion in pandemic-era loan guarantees issued by the state-owned Instituto de Crédito Oficial (ICO), considering them at high risk of default, El Mundo reported.

According to the central bank’s latest Financial Stability Report (May 2025), roughly 9% of ICO-backed COVID loans are now classified as “doubtful,” meaning they may never be repaid. Another 8% remain under “special monitoring,” where credit risk has significantly increased.

The ICO program, launched in 2020 with up to €140 billion in state guarantees to support businesses, ultimately backed about €92 billion in loans. Defaults have already cost public finances €2.1 billion as of the end of 2024, and potential future losses could lift that figure beyond €8.6 billion.

Some of these losses may be offset by fees banks paid for the guarantees—estimated at around €2 billion—but the Bank of Spain warns the total cost could still exceed earlier projections by the fiscal watchdog AIReF, which in 2021 expected around €6 billion in bad loans.

Despite a decline in loans under special monitoring last year, the number of doubtful loans rose by 7.5%, prompting the Bank of Spain to continue close supervision of pandemic-related credit exposure.

Foto de J Shim na Unsplash

Original Story: El Mundo | Author: Alejandra Olces
Edition and translation: Prime Yield