NPL&REO News

Brazil’s default rate hits record, affecting 73.5 million consumers

Brazil’s default rate reached a record high at the end of 2025, with 73.5 million people overdue on their debts, equivalent to around 44% of the country’s adult population, according to data released by Serasa Experian and reported by Diário do Comércio.

The increase was driven mainly by long-standing debts, with a significant share of unpaid obligations overdue for four to five years. Traditionally, December brings some financial relief due to the payment of the thirteenth-month salary, but this was insufficient to reverse the upward trend in defaults.

High levels of delinquency are weighing on both households and businesses. Consumers face restricted access to credit, while retailers report slower cash flow and greater uncertainty when planning investments for the year ahead.

Data show that individuals aged 30 to 39 account for the largest share of defaulters, with men and women affected in similar proportions. Regionally, the South of Brazil recorded the sharpest annual increase in defaults, followed by the North, Northeast, Southeast and Centre-West.

In addition to the growing number of people in arrears, the average amount owed and the number of debts per consumer also rose compared with the previous year, reinforcing concerns about the resilience of household finances in the months ahead.

Fonte: Diário do Comércio | Author: Mara Bianchetti
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Rio de Janeiro

Brazilian Banks See Slower Credit Growth in 2026, With Slight Rise in Delinquencies

Brazilian banks expect credit expansion to lose momentum in 2026, while loan delinquency should tick up slightly, according to a survey released by Febraban, the Brazilian banking federation.

The survey shows banks estimate that total credit grew 9.2% in 2025, but they now forecast a more modest increase of 8.2% in 2026. Even so, the outlook represents a slight improvement from earlier projections, supported mainly by government-backed lending programs for companies and the continued resilience of the housing credit market, which has helped offset weaker growth in rural lending.

Delinquency remains a key concern. Banks expect the default rate to remain at 5.1% in 2025, before rising marginally to 5.2% in 2026. The figures suggest that, despite expectations of an interest-rate easing cycle, borrower stress is not expected to decline meaningfully in the near term.

Febraban said the data reflect a credit market that is still expanding, but at a gradually slower pace, with risks linked to repayment capacity still on the radar.

Original Story: MSN
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Defaults in the financial system records highest increase in three years

Delinquency in the Brazilian National Financial System (SFN) rose to 4% in October, according to data released by the Central Bank . The rate, which considers delays of more than 90 days, rose 0.1 percentage points in the month and 0.8 points in 12 months.
According to Central Bank data, this was the highest cumulative increase in a year since the beginning of 2022, when the indicator also recorded a sharp acceleration amid the onset of monetary tightening, when the Selic rate entered double digits.
In previous years, the behaviour was quite different. In 2023, the annual variation in default was moderate, ranging from +0.20 percentage points to +0.30 points, with no month exceeding this level.

In 2024, however, the trend was downward: all annual variations were negative or close to zero, ranging from -0.29 p.p. to -0.22 p.p., ending the year at -0.23 p.p. in December — a period marked by a reduction, rather than an increase, in default rates.

In 2025, however, the numbers continued to rise. In free credit, default remained at 5.3%, but still with a significant increase of 0.9 points in 12 months. Among households, the indicator stands at 6.7%, stable for the month, but 1.3 points above the level recorded in October last year. For businesses, free credit defaults rose to 3.3%.

SFN credit considers the total operations contracted by households and businesses, and the data show that individuals account for most of this debt.

According to the data, in October, balances totalled R$ 4.3 trillion for households, compared to R$ 2.6 trillion for companies, which means that households account for more than 60% of all credit in the financial system, increasing the weight of consumption and domestic financing in the debt structure.

Original Story: CNN Brasil | Author: Cristiane Noberto
Photo: BrunoNeves in FreeImages
Translation and Edition: Prime Yield

debt agreement

Number of people in default has reached a historic high in Brazil

The number of people with bad credit has reached a record high, revealing the challenges consumers face in balancing their budgets.

Brazil has reached a historic milestone in terms of population indebtedness: there is currently almost R$500 billion in active debt distributed among 79 million consumers who have defaulted on payments. The data comes from Serasa’s Default Map, which shows nine consecutive months of increases, with 318,000 new defaulters added in September alone.

According to the report, the country has accumulated 313 million active debts, with an average value of R$6,274.82 per person. Most of these debts are related to banks and credit cards (27%), followed by basic bills such as electricity and water (21%), and non-bank financial companies (19.9%).

São Paulo continues to have the highest default rates, with 18.6 million people in default and debts totalling R$133.7 billion. In September, 55,400 new consumers joined the list of debtors, representing a 0.3% increase compared to August. The average debt per person in the state is R$7,175.46, with the main debts relating to basic bills (28.5%), banks and credit cards (27.3%), and financial companies (20.1%).

Original Story:  Consumidor Moderno | Author: Bianca Alvarenga
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Deliquency reaches 30.5% of households and hits record high in September

High interest rates and increasing debt are making it difficult for Brazilian households to renegotiate their debts and are worsening their financial situation.

According to the Consumer Indebtedness and Default Survey (Peic), conducted by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC), default hit a record high in September, reaching 30.5% of Brazilian households. This is the highest rate since the survey began in 2010. According to the CNC, households committed an average of one-third of their monthly income to debt repayments.

Around half of indebted families, equivalent to 48.7%, have been in default for over 90 days. These figures highlight the deterioration of the population’s financial situation and emphasise the severe cumulative effect of high interest rates, making it increasingly difficult to restore balance to household budgets.

Prolonged delays in debt repayments demonstrate not only the financial burden of credit rates, but also the growing difficulty of renegotiation as the total amount owed increases rapidly due to additional charges and fees.

Credit card defaults

With rising interest rates and increasing household debt, the default rate on revolving credit cards has exceeded 60%, revealing that most consumers are unable to pay their debts on time.

According to data from the Central Bank, the total amount borrowed in this way reached 79.4 billion reais in August, which is a 30.8% increase compared to December 2024. This percentage is much higher than the average 7% increase in total credit observed in the same period.

This scenario highlights the growing financial vulnerability of Brazilians. Faced with pressure from interest rates and limited access to more affordable credit, many consumers end up in an even worse financial situation, making debt repayment a constant challenge.

Original Story: Veja Negócios | Author: Carolina Ferraz
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Sale of NPL portfolios hit R$12 billion in the first half of the year

Delinquency is a persistent feature of Brazil’s economic landscape and directly reflects the financial health of consumers, companies, and the credit system itself. Recovery, a company of the Itaú Group and a specialist in credit recovery in Brazil, closed the first half of this year having renegotiated 4.3 million debts with more than 2.3 million individuals. These debts totaled over R$ 2.3 billion renegotiated.

“Brazilian debts reach us through the NPL (Non-Performing Loan) assignment market, which involves the sale of delinquent portfolios. Major sellers, such as banks, retailers, cooperatives, and other types of companies, negotiate their overdue portfolios, thus gaining liquidity and anticipating resources that could take many years to return to cash flow. All of this is done under regulation, following rules set by the Central Bank and the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM),” explains Bruno Russo, CEO of Recovery.

According to the executive, the NPL market reached R$ 12 billion in portfolio sales volume in the first half of this year. “Compared to the same period in 2024, major banks saw a 6% increase in total portfolios sold. Additionally, other financial institutions, such as digital banks and cooperatives, experienced a 31% increase. This shows that besides the large traditional banks, other types of companies are increasingly turning to NPL assignment,” Bruno explains.

“Since 2019, the number of companies selling their overdue credit portfolios has risen from 15 to 46 annually, including institutions of different sizes and sectors. Although the NPL sale market in Brazil is still small compared to other countries, such as those in Europe, this growth in selling companies shows how much the market is expanding in Brazil. More and more companies see selling these credits as an alternative to manage delinquency. For debtors, this process also represents a new chance to renegotiate overdue accounts and restart their financial lives,” concludes the executive.

Original Story: Correio dos Municípios | Author: News
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Credit Card Interest Rates Rose To 449.9% in May

According to the Monetary and Credit Statistics released by the Central Bank of Brazil (BC), average interest rates on revolving credit cards increased in May, whereas rates on overdrafts and payroll loans declined.

In May, the average interest rates on revolving credit cards reached 449.9 percent per year, up 5.7 percentage points from 444.2 percent in April, data from the BC show.

Revolving credit is charged when the full credit card bill is not paid by the due date, and the remaining balance is rolled over and paid in installments with interest.

In the case of overdrafts, the average interest rate charged was 134.7 percent per year in May. This was 2.7 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in April (137.4%).

An overdraft is a pre-approved credit linked to the account holder’s bank account, designed to cover transactions when funds are insufficient. When used, the bank charges interest on the borrowed amount—that is, the outstanding balance.

Another type of credit widely used by Brazilians is the payroll-deductible loan. In May, the average interest rate for this loan type dropped by 0.4 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching 26.5 percent, according to the Central Bank (total payroll loans).

In May, payroll loans for civil servants—typically cheaper due to the job stability guarantees—carried an interest rate of 24.8 percent per year. For private sector workers, payroll loan interest rates were significantly higher, reaching 55.6 percent annually.

For payroll loans taken out by beneficiaries of the National Social Security Institute (INSS), the interest rate charged was 24.3 percent in May.

Original Story: Agência Brasil | Author: Pedro Peduzzi
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Default in Brazil hits record high in April with 70.29 million debtors

In April 2025, the number of people in debt reached a record high, with 70.29 million Brazilians — equivalent to 43.36% of the country’s adult population — defaulting on their payments, according to the latest data from the CNDL (National Confederation of Shopkeepers) and the SPC Brasil (Credit Protection Service).

Compared to the same month in 2024, the number of debtors increased by 4.59%. From March to April 2025, the increase was 1.09%. According to José César da Costa, president of the CNDL, this record is related to Brazilians’ difficulty in “balancing the budget at the end of the month”.

‘Despite the slight improvement in income indices and the reduction in unemployment, these advances have not been enough to contain the increase in debts. The combination of high prices for essential items, high levels of family indebtedness and the upward trend in the basic interest rate are directly contributing to the worsening of this worrying scenario,” he said.

The age group with the highest number of people in debt is 30 to 39 years old, with 17.38 million people in this category. Those over 85 owe the least, at 416 thousand.

The Southeast, the country’s most populous region, has the highest number of people with a bad credit rating, at 30.25 million. In percentage terms, the largest proportion of the population with a bad credit rating is in the Midwest, at 46.12%.

On average, each delinquent consumer owes R$4,689.54 to 2.18 creditor companies, most of which are banks. Debts in arrears grew by 8.75% in April compared to the same period in 2024.

Original Story: Poder 360
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Orlando Sant'Anna for Unsplash

Desenrola Brasil’s unpaid debt stimulates market to sell NPL portfolios in 2025

In 2025, the market for the sale of non-performing loan (NPL) portfolios in Brazil will continue to gain momentum. Desenrola Brasil is one of the drivers. Launched in July 2023 and ending in May 2024, the programme created by the federal government has helped more than 15 million people and reduced defaults among the most vulnerable segment of the Brazilian population.

Although it encouraged financial institutions to negotiate debts with incentives covered by the Operations Guarantee Fund (FGO), Desenrola also created counterparts. In order to ensure the return of the amounts covered by the FGO, Law 14.690 (of 3 October 2023), which established Desenrola Brasil, provides for the holding of auctions of debt portfolios that are still in default.

In practice, this means that all financial institutions that have drawn on the FGO’s resources must auction off defaulted loan portfolios in order to recover these amounts. As provided for in Law 14,690, the auction follows the rules of the Ministry of Finance and is not related to the financial health of the financial institutions licensed under Desenrola Brasil.

According to a survey carried out by Recovery, a company of the Itaú Group and leader in the purchase and management of non-performing loans in Brazil, eight financial institutions participating in Desenrola have already held auctions to sell NPL portfolios. This list includes Banco do Brasil, BMG, Bradesco, Inter, Itaú, Nubank, Pan and Sicoob.

For clients who managed to negotiate a debt under Desenrola Brasil, but didn’t have enough funds to pay it, it is important to note that the debt remains in force, even if there is an auction. In this case, the change is that the debt will no longer be negotiated with the institution that carried out the transaction under Desenrola. The default will have to be negotiated with the company that won the auction, which will take over the management of the defaulted portfolio and will be responsible for helping people to settle their debts once and for all, taking advantage of the offer negotiated at Desenrola.

IFRS 9 In addition to the obligation to auction defaulted loans negotiated at Desenrola Brasil, financial institutions may have another incentive to sell overdue portfolios. In January this year, the international accounting standard IFRS 9 came into force, which changes the way in which provisions for doubtful debts, a balance sheet item known by the acronym PDD, are presented. In practice, these provisions correspond to the amounts that financial institutions must set aside to cover potential defaults on loans and financing.

The growth of the NPL market in Brazil has skyrocketed in the last five years and it is expected that the volume traded in 2025 will exceed the 2024 figure of around R$30 billion.

The expansion of the market for the sale of credit assets also acts as fuel for the engine of the economy, as it facilitates the recovery of clients’ financial health and, consequently, their appetite for more credit.

The executive also notes that in Brazil, more and more companies other than the big banks have become assignors, i.e. they participate in the market for the sale of credit assets so that they can get these amounts back into their cash flow more quickly, leaving it to credit recovery companies such as Recovery to collect the amounts from the debtors. Digital banks, co-operatives and retailers, for example, are some of those who are betting on this strategy to have liquidity,” he says.

Source: Monitor Mercantil | Author: Redação
Edition and translation: Prime Yield
Photo: Orlando Sant’Anna for Unsplashed

Consumer Credit

Default reached 68.76 million consumers in February, according to CNDL/SPC Brasil

The Default Indicator carried out by the national confederation of retailers (CNDL) and the credit protection service (SPC Brasil) shows that four out of ten adult Brazilians (41.5%) were in default in February 2025, representing 68.76 million consumers. Compared to February 2024, the percentage of defaulters in Brazil increased by 3.2 % in February 2025. From January to February, the number of debtors decreased by -0.04%.

Based on the data available in their database, which includes information from the capitals and interior of all 26 states and the Federal District, CNDL and SPC Brasil note that the annual variation observed in February this year was higher than that of the previous month.

From a regional point of view, the highest percentage of defaulters is found in the Centre-West region, where 45.2% of the adult population is registered as debtors. On the other hand, in the South, the proportion of people in debt is 37.1% of the adult population.

Original Story: CNDL website
Translation & Edition: Prime Yield

NPL sales market to reach nearly R$30 billion by 2024, according to Recovery

The sector has seen an increase in the number of cedants, as well as a change in the profile of these companies, with an increase in the participation of cooperatives and retailers.

Recovery, an Itaú Group company and leader in the purchase and management of non-performing loans (NPL) in Brazil, has just published its balance sheet for 2024. According to the company’s research, the market for the sale of non-performing portfolios during this period will total 28 billion reais.

One of the main changes is the diversification of the profile of companies accessing the NPL market to negotiate their debt portfolios. In 2019, the volume of delinquent portfolios transacted in this market involved only 16 originators. At that time, the majority of the volume ceded (84%) was concentrated in transactions conducted by three large banks. However, by 2024, 45 companies were involved in the Brazilian NPL market, and the percentage of transactions carried out by large banks fell to 37%, in parallel with the entry of other segments, such as digital banks and cooperatives, as well as retailers, which increased their participation in the sale of debt portfolios.

Brazil has made significant progress in the NPL market over the past five years, and it is clear that companies’ understanding of the business of selling delinquent debt portfolios has changed significantly. It’s a sector that is raising funds that are being ploughed back into the lending industry, providing liquidity to companies and facilitating the process for debtors to clear their names and increase their chances of regaining credit. Negotiating delinquent portfolios is like oil in the machinery of credit, because the creditor who has a parked portfolio gets the opportunity to generate funds to invest in his own business,’ points out Plínio Ribeiro, head of commercial and portfolio acquisition at Recovery.

Change in the profile of lenders

In addition to the volume traded, the number of lenders has also increased. Five years ago, only four institutions, including financial institutions, cooperatives and digital banks, traded their credit assets in the sector. By 2024, that number had risen to 37.

‘We’d like to make a special mention of the cooperatives. Although it may seem modest when you look at the credit stock of co-operatives, this represents a very big leap. It’s a market with the potential to grow much more by 2025, because the wheels are starting to turn in this segment. Co-operatives are more inclined and open to this market, they have learnt to grant loans and have felt the benefits of these operations,’ says Plinio from Recovery.

In addition, the retail segment increased its share in 2024, reaching 26%, compared to 5% in 2019. In 2019, there were only nine retail companies in this sector; in 2024, there are 40. This wide diversification of the originators of delinquent portfolios is also reflected in a reconfiguration of the type of loans negotiated. This is the case, for example, of portfolios secured by vehicles, which reach almost 1 billion in 2020 and more than 4 billion in 2024.

Another change in the default portfolio sales sector relates to the average maturity of assigned portfolios. In 2019, they were on average 4 years old. In 2024, newer portfolios will be negotiated, with an average of 2.5 years.

For the executive, the macroeconomic scenario in 2025 and 2026 promises greater progress in the trading of credit assets in the country. With the increase in the Selic rate and the rise in inflation, companies and consumers are expected to be more indebted, creating a favourable scenario for the growth of the NPL market. In this more challenging environment, the willingness to sell defaulted portfolios tends to grow and mature. On the creditors’ side, it will be an opportunity to bring short-term funding to their respective operations and maintain their credit concession,” he concludes.

Original Story: Fusões e Aquisições | Author: Recovery PR
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Number of indebted Brazilians falls in January

The percentage of Brazilian families who say they have debts that are due, such as credit cards, overdrafts, shop bills, personal loans or car and house payments, among others, continues to fall, reaching 76.1% in January this year. This is a fall of 0.6 percentage points compared to December 2024 and 2 percentage points compared to the same period last year.

The figures come from the Consumer Indebtedness and Default Survey (Peic), organised by the National Confederation of Trade in Goods, Services and Tourism (CNC). The data for the study were collected from all the state capitals and the Federal District. and the Federal District, with around 18,000 consumers.

According to the authors of the study, the downward trend “highlights the caution of consumers in taking on debt at a time of high interest rates and a tendency for further increases”. This is borne out by the number of families who said they felt ‘very indebted’, which reached 15.9 per cent, the highest level since September 2024. On the other hand, the number of those who said they had ‘no debt’ of this kind rose to 23.9 per cent.

On the positive side of this greater concern, the proportion of families with debts in arrears fell to 29.1 per cent, down from 29.3 per cent in December. However, the figure for January this year is higher than that for January 2024, which was 28.3 per cent.

On the other hand, the proportion of families who said they were unable to pay their outstanding debts fell for the first time since July last year, to 12.7 per cent. This is lower than the 13 per cent recorded in December 2024, but higher than the 12 per cent recorded in January last year.

According to the CNC, the figures are a ‘warning sign for the economy in 2025′. This view was expressed by the president of the CNC-Sesc-Senac system, José Roberto Tadros, in a statement issued by the organisation. High interest rates and selective credit mean that consumers are trying to take on less debt and, as a negative effect, are increasing their perception of indebtedness.  The slight improvement in delinquency shows that Brazilian households have made an effort to balance their finances, but the growing commitment of income is a warning sign for the economy in 2025,’ he says.

The Consumer Indebtedness and Delinquency Survey also shows that consumers are managing to pay their overdue bills more quickly, with the percentage of households with debts overdue by more than 90 days falling to 48.9 per cent in January, the third consecutive month of decline.

However, the number of consumers with more than half their income tied up in debt rose to 20.8 per cent, the highest since May 2024, bringing the average income tied up in debt to 30 per cent in January.

Despite the improvement in payment times, debt is consuming a greater proportion of household income, partly due to the reduction in payment terms. Nevertheless, the proportion of families in debt for more than a year fell for the first time since May 2024, reaching 35.9 per cent.

For the authors of the study, the rise in interest rates is restricting credit and forcing consumers to devote more of their income to debt repayments, which is exacerbating the feeling of indebtedness.

The CNC predicts that household indebtedness is likely to increase this year, as families will need to borrow for consumption despite high interest rates. This should keep defaults at a low level in 2025, according to the organisation’s analysis.

The CNC’s survey revealed which debts are the most recurring for Brazilian families. Credit cards top the list, followed by bills, personal loans and home loans.

Original Story: Estadão
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Serasa: Number of people in debt in the country reaches 73 million

The latest survey by Serasa shows that at least 73.10 million people in Brazil are in debt. The figures are for October and are the second highest of the year, after the figure recorded in April. For the organisation, the figure is an indication that the number of people in arrears is increasing.

According to the survey, Brazilians between the ages of 41 and 60 represent the largest share of the population with a restricted name, at 35.1 per cent. This is followed by the 26 to 40 age group (34.0 per cent), the over 60s (19.2 per cent) and young people aged 18 to 25 (11.8 per cent).

Original Story: Agência Brasil | Author: Flávia Albuquerque
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

NPL pile

NPL sales market reached R$7.7 bn in the 3rd quarter

The sale of non-performing loans (NPL) portfólios reached a total of 7.7 billion reais in the third quarter of 2024, a result 64% higher than in the second quarter, when it reached 4.7 billion reais. The data comes from a survey carried out by Recovery, a company in the segment belonging to the Itaú Group.

Compared to the same period in 2023, when 5 billion reais were sold, the result in the third quarter was 54% higher, which indicates that credit assignments were dammed with the arrival of the federal government’s Desenrola programme in the third quarter of 2023, according to the company’s analysis.

In 2024, the NPL market will record a total of 17.4 billion reais in non-performing portfolios sold.

Original Story: Veja Negócios | Author: Felipe Erlich
Translation and Edition: Prime Yield

NPL sales market reached R$9.7bn in the first half of the year

Recovery, an Itaú Group company and leader in the purchase and management of non-performing loans in Brazil, released its balance sheet for the first half of this year. According to the company’s survey, the sale of non-performing portfolios totalled R$9.7 billion in the first half of the year, with more than R$4.7 billion in the second quarter alone.

‘Within the NPL market, some segments have been standing out, including credit card debts, debts from digital banks and fintechs, and vehicle financing. It’s worth emphasising that these figures fluctuate over the months and years due to various factors related to the economy. It’s a natural market movement,’ explains Plínio, head of Commercial and Portfolio Acquisition at Recovery.

Looking at the market for the sale of delinquent portfolios, with a focus on credit card debts, this reached R$3.5 billion from January to June this year, R$2 billion of which between April and June alone. ‘Credit card debts are the most representative in the market for the assignment of delinquent portfolios because they reflect the general scenario of Brazilian indebtedness. The ease of contracting this type of credit and the high interest rates drive this indebtedness,’ comments Ribeiro.

The digital banks and fintechs segment, on the other hand, recorded R$1 billion and R$0.5 billion, respectively, in the first half of this year and in the first quarter. ‘These banks are making more and more progress in approving credit and this ends up causing their debt rates to rise as well. The credit assignment market is undoubtedly a way for these new banks to gain liquidity and have a healthier operation. I believe that these banks should increasingly access the assignment market,’ says the expert.

Debts from the vehicle sector totalled R$1.2 billion in the first half of the year and R$0.8 billion in the second quarter alone.

Original Story: BNews | Author: Verônica Macedo
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Debt Funds Refuse New Investors as Returns Tighten in Brazil

Some of Brazil’s biggest fund managers are taking a step back from the country’s booming market for local corporate debt. 

Part of the caution comes from the fact the central bank just began raising interest rates — an outlier, hiking just hours after the Federal Reserve cut borrowing costs in the US. The tighter conditions for borrowers add worry to what traders see as a massive compression of spreads, making the assets far less appealing, especially for higher-quality borrowers investors are crowding in to. 

The spread is already so low that Alexandre Muller, a credit portfolio manager at JGP Asset Management, has stopped raising money for 95% of his credit funds. 

“We closed the funds to preserve the quality of our invested portfolios, avoiding a dilution of spreads due to too much cash or new issuances with very low premiums,” Muller, said in an interview. JGP has 35 billion reais ($6.4 billion) under management.

Yields on Brazil’s local currency corporate bonds have fallen by almost a third in just over a year to an average 170 basis points over the interbank interest rate, known as DI. That’s down 80 points since August 2023, according to data from JGP. Spreads on AAA-rated debt slumped about 70 basis points to 80 points over the same period, separate data from Sparta Fundo de Investimentos show. 

The higher costs abroad and newfound appetite for local debt at longer maturities have boosted the appeal of sales at home, where double-digit interest rates keep investors focused on fixed-income products. Brazilian companies issued a record 207 billion reais ($36.8 billion) of local bonds in the first half of the year. That’s up 164% from the year earlier. Hard-currency corporate bond sales, meanwhile, came in at around $10 billion for the same period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. 

“The Brazilian capital market has recently seen a surge in the debt issuance volume caused by a change in the dynamics of the market and high interest rates,” said Conor Hennebry, global head of Corporate Debt at Santander CIB. “The weak equity market lost traction and caused inflows to the debt market. This shift, along with the high liquidity from dedicated funds and investors, allowed spreads to compress.”

While it’s grown exponentially in size in the past few years — the stock of local currency corporate bonds, known as debentures, is around $200 billion, almost double the $106 billion for hard-currency notes — Brazil’s local debt market remains dominated by local players, with a large part of the trades happening over-the-counter.

‘Unique’

For Sergey Dergachev, head of emerging-market corporate debt at Union Investment Privatfonds GmbH in Frankfurt, it’s part of the dynamic of local corporate debt in emerging markets broadly. 

“It’s a very unique asset class,” he said. “It’s around 3.5 times bigger in market cap than hard currency EM corporate debt, but foreign investor presence is almost negligible due to different bankruptcy laws, different tax treatment vs. local EM sovereign debt and different liquidity situation as well as settlement procedures.”

Among the locals, JGP isn’t alone in stepping back. SulAmerica Investimentos is also closing some corporate debt funds and limiting fund-raising for others as spreads narrow, said CEO Marcelo Mello. SulAmerica is the asset management arm of one of Brazil’s largest insurance companies, and has around 76 billion reais under management. 

“We think there will be a repricing, so we have a more defensive strategy” with increased cash positions, Mello said. “Spreads are very thin, so there will be no more demand. An adjustment may be healthy.”

High-grade only

Investors are crowding into the few high-grade names available, as the high-yield debt market remains bruised following the accounting fraud scandal and subsequent default at the retailer Americanas SA in early 2023. 

“Our strategy for the coming months will be based on a main pillar: high selectivity in the choice of assets,” Sparta said in a monthly statement that cited the compressed spreads. The firm, which oversees about 15 billion reais, plans to maintain “a higher cash level and shorten the duration of the portfolio.”

Structured products, such as securitized debt instruments, are also luring investors scouring for higher returns. Others are looking for new names and expanding areas of coverage. 

But the boom has also led to the emergence of pockets of trouble, such as rising defaults in the agribusiness sector. Fiagros, investment funds backed by agricultural receivables, have been stung by growers going bankrupt at alarming rates as corn and soybean prices tumbled. 

“Fund managers today are thirsting for assets, but I don’t want to be pressured to allocate for the sake of allocating,” said Vivian Lee, Co-Chief Investment Officer and head of credit at Ibiuna Investimentos, which oversees about 19.5 billion reais. When debt sales are booming, “you need to have the discipline to stay as a spectator” if spreads fall too low, she said.

Original Story: BNN Bloomberg | Author: Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo
Edition: Prime Yield

Brazil’s Pix to overtake credit cards in e-commerce as soon as 2025, study shows

Brazil’s instant payment system Pix is seen surpassing credit cards as the leader in the local online purchase market as soon as next year, earlier than initially expected, a new study from Brazilian payments firm Ebanx showed.

Pix was launched by Brazil’s central bank at the end of 2020, quickly becoming one of the most used tools for money transfers or purchases as it offers mostly free and instantly-settled transactions.

The study, which is based on data from research and intelligence firm PCMI, showed Pix is expected to account for 44% of Brazil’s online payment market by the end of 2025, while credit cards were seen with a 41% slice.

A previous version of the study released earlier this year had projected Pix to nearly match credit cards in the local online market only by the end of 2026.

Ebanx director of country growth for Latin America Juliana Etcheverry told Reuters that Pix has led a financial inclusion approach that encouraged more merchants to offer the instant payment method.

“It’s a chicken-and-egg scenario, a virtuous cycle,” she told Reuters.

According to the central bank, by late 2022 some 71.5 million Brazilians had been included in the financial system through Pix.

Its growth between retail and travel sectors in the digital market also explains the greater outlook for Pix, Etcheverry said.

Brazil’s central bank is expected to launch new Pix features in the next years, including the option to pay through installments, that could make it more of a threat to credit cards.

According to Etcheverry, some former credit card users are already switching to Pix.

The outlook for credit cards did not change much from the previous study, with both predicting a decline from the 49% share of the e-commerce market they had in 2023.

Still, Etcheverry does not believe Pix will end up killing cards. “The cards industry is also investing in protocols, in features that would also make them keep growing in the market.”

Original Story: Yahoo Finance | Author: Reuters | Date: 03.09.2024
Edition: Prime Yield

More than 40 per cent of Brazil’s adult population is in arrears

Default affects 41.25 per cent of Brazil’s adult population, or 67.98 million consumers. The figure refers to the July 2024 indicator of the National Confederation of Shopkeepers (CNDL) and the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brasil). The percentage of defaulters also increased by 0.38 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The most significant number of debtors in July was in the 30 to 39 age group (23.67 per cent). According to the estimate, there are 16.77 million people registered as debtors in this age group, which means that half (49.31 per cent) of Brazilians in this age group are in debt.

In July, each negative consumer owed an average of R$4,358.95 in all their debts. In addition, each defaulter owed an average of 2.10 creditor companies, considering all these debts.

The number of debts in arrears in July grew by 2.25 per cent compared to the same period in 2023. The figure for the seventh month of this year was higher than the annual variation seen in the previous month. Even so, from June to July, the number of debts fell by -0.57%.

Original Story: Exclusivo | Author: Michel Pozzebon
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Personal Credit

Retail association predicts drop in defaults in July

The default rate on credit cards, overdrafts, personal loans and other types of consumer credit should fall to 5.42% in July, according to a forecast by the Brazilian Institute of Retail & Consumer Market Executives (Ibevar) and the FIA Business School.

This figure represents a fall of 0.15 percentage points (p.p.) compared with the last real figure published in May 2024, and is an average within the range of 5.13% to 5.7% calculated taking into account a reduction in payment arrears calculated by the Central Bank (BC) – those exceeding 90 days.

In June, the National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) calculated that the percentage of Brazilians in debt remained at 78.8%, which, according to the organisation, indicates a stabilisation in the demand for credit by families.

However, the number of families that were late with their bills, as recorded by the Central Bank, reached the highest percentage since 2024, the CNC said.

Original Story: CNN Brazil | Author: Marien Ramos
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

Rio de Janeiro

Default reached 68.76 million consumers in Brazil in May

The total number of defaulters in Brazil remained at 68.76 million in May, repeating April’s result – the highest in the survey’s historical series. This figure represents 41.79 per cent of adult Brazilians. Compared to the same month last year, the percentage of defaulters in Brazil fell slightly by 0.04 per cent. The data comes from the National Confederation of Shopkeepers (CNDL) and the Credit Protection Service (SPC Brasil).

“Unforeseen circumstances, a reduction in income and a lack of control over the budget are major reasons for default and the priority ends up being to pay those bills that have had their services cut off, such as internet, telephone, water and electricity,” says CNDL president José César da Costa.

The survey, based on information from the capitals and inland cities of all 26 Brazilian states, as well as the Federal District, shows that people aged between 30 and 39 account for the largest proportion of debtors, at 23.69 per cent. As for the gender of defaulters, women account for 51.14 per cent and men 48.86 per cent.

When all outstanding debts are added together, the average debt of defaulters is R$4,445.19. According to the data, each negative consumer owed an average of 2.10 creditor companies. The figures also show that almost three out of every ten consumers (30.70 per cent) had debts of up to R$500, a percentage that rises to 44.72 per cent when it comes to amounts of up to R$1,000.

Original Story: Mercado e Consumo | Data: 19.06.2024
Edition and translation: Prime Yield

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