Doubts about the economic evolution in the coming months are clouding all kinds of forecasts. Despite the uncertainty, banks are trying to anticipate and see a possible upturn in non-performing loans (NPL) at the end of the year. However, they are confident that the resilience of employment, as well as the performance of activity, so far better than expected, will clear up any hint of default.
For the moment, bankers’ concerns are at a minimum, in line with the default rate itself. So, at least, they have made it clear these days during the III Finance Observatory organised by EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia.
Remaining at minimum for months – with the latest data available from the Bank of Spain, the default closed 2022 at 3.54%, the lowest level since December 2008 – the level of defaults does not worry the banks too much, neither in the case of companies nor in that of individuals. “So far we are not seeing a problem in NPLs. It remains at minimum levels both in Spain and in Europe”, explained Alejandra Kindelán, president of the Spanish Banking Association (AEB) at this forum.
Behind this evolution lies, in her opinion, the fact that the economy has not slowed down as much as expected (it should be remembered that some months ago recession was taken for granted), as well as the fact that employment “is holding up very well”.
Moreover, says Kindelán, “banks’ management of NPL and credit portfolios is very responsible and much more proactive now. They have learned a lot from the previous crisis”.
That said, the banks do see the possibility of an upturn in NPL in a few months’ time, especially as a result of the poor digestion that certain companies will make of the increase in costs due to high inflation, which in the euro area still stands at 8.6%, as well as the impact that the rise in interest rates may have on activity.
Future upturn
“The main purpose of the interest rate hike is to curb inflation and it does so by cooling the economy. This cooling will also have an impact on the sector, on the volume of assets in the sector, and potentially on non-performing loans,” said Kindelán.
A view shared by Santander Spain. Ángel Rivera, CEO of the group’s domestic subsidiary, pointed out at the same forum that for the moment there is no worrying delinquency rate, which is also helped by the fact that many families have a good savings cushion, to which they contributed a lot during the pandemic.
“At the end of the year the situation will probably get a little worse,” he warned, however, as the moderation in demand for credit, which is already being felt, together with high inflation, will mean that “the tension” will be “greater” then. “We will see a rise in NPL,” he pointed out, although he referred to the third and fourth quarters to see the evolution of the effect of the measures taken by the central banks.For his part, Carlos Ventura, general manager of Sabadell, pointed out that “it would be reasonable to expect that some sectors or companies will not be able to pass on inflation in the same way, especially in energy, and this will generate somewhat more NPL in these niches than would be reasonable”. “We expect [delinquencies] to be moderate,” he added.
Original Story: El Español | Elena Lozano
Photo: Banco de España
Edition and translation: Prime Yield