The rate of non-performing loans (NPL) fell slightly in September from 3.44% to 3.43% in the midst of a slowdown in financing costs and brings the balance of NPL to over 40.4 billion.

One of the main achievements of Spanish banks after the rise in interest rates has been to keep the NPL ratio at historically low levels. The favourable evolution of the economy and the resilience of the labour market have contributed to this downward trend, pushing the NPL ratio down to its lowest levels ever. According to the latest data published by the Bank of Spain (BdE), the default rate closed September at 3.43%, slightly lower than the 3.44% recorded the previous month.

It is again close to the 3.42% it reached in June, coinciding with the first cut in the price of money implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB). In year-on-year comparison, the rate contracted by a little more than one tenth of a percentage point from 3.56%, which translates into 1,627 million less doubtful loans, down to 40,454 million. The slowdown in the Euribor has contributed to this trend and gives mortgage holders some respite. It should be recalled that the benchmark index of the mortgage market in Spain closed the ninth month of the year below 3%, something that had not happened since the end of 2022.

The organisation differentiates between the aggregate delinquency of banks, savings banks and cooperatives and that of consumer finance companies. In this regard, the former ended September at 3.32% and fell in the same proportion as the overall figure, although the amount rose slightly by 19 million to 37,420 million. Compared to a year ago, it fell by one tenth of a point. At the same time, in the case of consumer loans, the rate fell by more than two tenths of a point to 2.48%, although the amount of defaults only fell by two million per month.

The vertical rise in the cost of financing more than two years ago alerted the banking sector to a possible upturn in NPL, which in the end has not occurred. The measures promoted by the government to help mortgagors in difficulty have also helped to contain this rate, which peaked last February at 3.62%. This behaviour is recorded in the midst of an upturn in the granting of loans, which has been rising in double digits throughout the year.

In fact, the demand for mortgage loans has just experienced its best September since 2009 with the granting of 4,885 million in financing for housing. In the same month fifteen years ago, loans of this type were granted for a value of 5,235 million. The difference with that time is that the bursting of the housing bubble had already begun to hit the economy and the cost of financing hovered around the barrier of 1%, while at the end of the third quarter it stood at 3.5%, 0.25% higher than it oscillates at the present time.

Looking ahead to the final stretch of the year, the sector expects to remain at these levels in a context marked by the activation of the countercyclical buffer of 0.5% in a scenario of ‘moderate risks’, which will apply from October 2025. Subsequently, and depending on systemic risks remaining at standard levels, the percentage may be increased by another half a percentage point at the end of next year to be applicable twelve months later.

Original Story: La Información Económica | Author: Carmen Muñoz
Edition and translation: Prime Yield