Spanish households reduced more than 2.7 billion in loans for house purchases in January, in the midst of the rise in the Euribor, and reaching a volume not seen since May eight years ago.

The outstanding mortgage balance accelerated its fall in January. All the signs are that the Euribor will continue to be on the rocks for the rest of the year, as the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to be more aggressive if it wants to tame an inflation rate that still shows no signs of slowing down. And with the fear that mortgage repayments will continue to rise, families have opted to amortize mortgages as a measure of protection against their escalation and to save themselves an increase in interest, which is already eating into disposable income.

Thus, according to data from the Bank of Spain, in January, the outstanding mortgage balance decreased by €2,758 million, to €508,199 million, 0.54% less than in December 2022. This is the largest month-on-month reduction since May 2015, when households repaid €2,798 million. If the sum of December and January are taken into account, this volume fell by just over €5 billion (in total €5.207 billion). Moreover, the reductions in December and January are equivalent to those experienced between August and November 2022, months in which this trend could already be seen.

Everything points to the fact that the outstanding mortgage balance will continue to fall throughout the year. At the same time, so will the volume of new mortgages granted. Thus, according to data from the supervisory body, 2022 ended up exceeding 2021 (with €62,220 million granted compared with just over €59,000 million in 2021), although at the start of the year there has been a decrease compared with December, of just over €4,100 million, the lowest figure for the whole of 2022 (and in line with August due to lower activity).

And except for the months of August, we would have to go back to 2020, the year of the pandemic (where the granting of credit was impacted by restrictions not only on mobility, but also by greater caution on the part of banks) to see similar figures. 

This is nothing new; financial institutions were already expecting a slowdown in lending for house purchases at the beginning of the year, which would last throughout 2023. If we add to this a contained unemployment rate, this is yet another reason that financial institutions can use to avoid having to significantly increase provisions to cover doubtful loans. Indeed, the Bank of Spain has also noted a further tightening of access to credit.

Original Story: La Información | Cristina Casillas 
Photo: Photo by Philipp K in FreeImages
Edition and translation: Prime Yield